I had a class in Feb at Melb Uni which showed these HTML sliders controlling the colour of a box; https://beta.observablehq.com/@maegul/basic-html-and-viewof-play and I thought it would be cool if you could make a model of NBN's finances and use a bunch of sliders to check out various scenarios eg
- people leave NBN for mobile
- people leave/stay with FTTN because too slow/good enough
- when to replace FTTN with FTTC/FTTP (I ended up using two sliders. One to put $$$ aside to replace FTTN, as % of cash profit. The other is what to replace FTTN with, FTTC or FTTP or mix.)
As I say in my submission:
This submission introduces an online model which describes financial scenarios of NBN’s business over the next 20 years; including replacing FTTN with FTTC/FTTP, repaying debt, upgrading to gigabit services and the potential fallout of not replacing FTTN, to calculate NBN’s financial value under these different possible futures.
Here the Observable model is - NBN Financials from 2021 on. The model rates a Base Case value of NBN at $31B. https://beta.observablehq.com/@areff2000/nbn-financials-from-2021-on-v5a-verbose-offhttps://beta.observablehq.com/@areff2000/nbn-financials-from-2021-v5-on
Key findings of the model
- NBN cash profit(EBITDA) after 2021 $2.44B per year
- can afford to replace FTTN In 6-8 yrs depending on FTTC/FTTP, if not repaying debt
- each loss 1% of customers worth $1B in NBN value
- gigabit services can add $20B to NBN value
- FTTN replacement pays for itself if 30% of FTTN users upgrade to gigabit
- customer satisfaction has big impact on NBN value
- where gigabit costs 2* avg ARPU...but higher margin...
- Model suggests NBN will have enough $$$ to replace FTTN, if don’t have to repay debt urgently. Otherwise run into FTTN end of life and possible loss of customers...
Any comments, as usual, appreciated.
Twitter mention: https://twitter.com/valuemgmt/status/979110826643660800?s=21