Defining Value Meanings

I am working on definitions for the Value Meanings. The meanings are cluster names from value elements mentioned by 3G consumers during the course of their interviews. The definitions are not saturated in a grounded theory sense, but do come from 2000 data points, of which 60% were about value meanings. Meanings are more inclusive (X includes A, B, C) than definitional (X means Y), and include oppositions (X contrasts with Y). Saturation is recommended in future work for emotion as a central concept and driver of value, and need, which seems particularly atomic. The diagram lines are not meaningful, but indicate primary and secondary colours. Connection between value meanings is unsubstantiated, though value elements combine value meanings to form new instances of value. For instance, safety combines duty, power, time, fun, community. Particularly difficult value elements are sexy and cool. Though I tend to think cool is just colloquial for good. Updates on the meanings to follow...

Draft definitions include:

1.Function: benefits as of a tool, something useful, with potential, including accessories, and contrasted with more frivolous use like fun.

2.Price: benefits and costs relating to payments, credit, bonus or free offers, including tax deductions.

3.Time: benefits and costs relating to convenience, quickness or timely service, and contrasted with delay, interruptions or lack of time.

4.Service/reliability: benefits including personalise, solutions, warranty, phone coverage and contrasted with problems.

5.Newness: including not previously known or used, something learned, or of interest, something important, relevant and with potential, and contrasted with the known, past, and the old.

6.Emotion: feeling or state derived from internal, external or social context, distinct from thoughts, including stress, love, surprise, trust, or excitement.

7.Need: including wants, desires, necessity, or necessary evil.

8.Simplicity; valuable benefits including something easy, with clarity, or certainty, lack of doubt or uncertainty.

9.Duty: including parental or familial, contractual commitments, and contrasted with choice, or own interests.

10.Power: includes control, potential, flexible, freedom and unlimited access to functions, while contrasted with limits.

11.Beauty: sensual benefits including aesthetics, colours, size, style, and looks.

12. Connection/community: social benefits of inclusion, including brand, status symbol, and contrasted with privacy.

What is Richard Ferrers up to?!

Does anyone on planet Earth...apart from Richie himself, actually know what Richie is up to??? In fact...does Richie even know?????

Measuring Innovation in the Fortune 500

I have been examining movement in the Fortune 500, to identify innovation.

Looking at the Fortune 500 shows several groups of companies, including:

Steady performers:
IBM, Bank of America, Exxon, Microsoft, Boeing

Fast Fallers:
Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Halliburton, Altria

Fast Risers:
Apple, Amazon, L-3 Comms, CVS, Rite Aid, Murphy Oil

Slow Risers:
Nike

What this graph doesn't show is growth through acquisition. Such acquisitions would show as strong growth, when it is purchased rather than innovated growth. Apple is a standout for its growth, and Amazon seems two years behind. At&T has also grown significantly into the top 10, from the same time the iPhone came to market.

See Data Table.


See Graph below. The Graph shows the changing ranking of companies within the Fortune 500 (measured by revenue), and just some from each type of movement in the Top 200.
(1)Fast growers are diagonal downward lines to the right, while many companies especially big companies are steady.
Nike and Apple start at about the same place in 2006 (around 160) and Nike (in Pink) grows slowly, while Apple (in Orange) grows quickly. (2) Merrill Lynch (in dark blue) drops 100 spots in 2009 before disappearing. Lehman Bros dies while in the Top 50. (3) Amazon catches Google in 2010.

Thesis at a glance: Wordle.net

Two word pictures of the thesis (wordle.net) text.


Also pictures by chapter....here.




Removing: value, 3G, consumer/s, innovation.



Removing: phone, technology, grounded, theory, meanings...
leaves words describing value meanings, and value in practice. Click to expand picture in new window.

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A birthday Newton Ferrers Wordle montage from muchfoolishness

NBN Value Management

The Australian is reporting that Brunswick, Melbourne residents don't know enough about the NBN to sign up yet.

"In reality, people aren't going to sign up until they know how much this is going to cost them," said Ms Ratnakar, whose association represents 544 businesses on the Sydney Road strip. "Getting together with service providers and mapping out what's going to be available and how much it's going to cost is really at the end of the day going to swing it."

In response, I have created a sample flyer for NBN Brunswick residents to compare NBN prices in Tasmania, to indicate prices in Melbourne. These are subject to change, and not yet available. Yet this information is important to allow residents to decide whether to sign up for the NBN.

Sample flyer below. Revised copy now with Telstra and Internode prices here (109k pdf). Now revised with logo here (240k pdf). Comments appreciated.

Is Cisco UMI (you-me) the NBN killer app?

CNN has a video story today showing Cisco's Umi 1080P hi-def videoconferencing application that sits on your TV.

(this CNN link might expire, since there is no permalink on the video)

Cost:$600, plus $25 per month
Uses: HDMI in/out
Needs: 3.5 mbps bandwidth (seems low for hidef, but the NBN will mean everyone can use it, including satellite and wireless...)
Needs: unlimited Gbs (sigh.... I am on 4Gb per month... student...)

This could be a killer app for the NBN, if the price was right. I think this price is too high, but if it got down to Apple TV price ($129) and $10 per month, there could be a stampede....

See also the Cisco website: Umi website
This might also be a good way to demo the speed of the NBN. Cisco has demonstration centres around the US: New York, Boston, Dallas, Chicago. Might be fun to have in the city malls where people can interact between cities eg Melb vs Syd, Bris vs Perth, Adel vs Darwin, Newc vs Geel.... just for fun....



Meet Umi




Video on Youtube... too HD to even fit on a blog....(sigh)...

NBN Sensitivity Analysis: Cost Benefit Part II

I reworked the figures (spreadsheet) in my costs benefit analysis spreadsheet with new assumptions. Four new scenarios show impact of changing assumptions. From low to high takeup adds $10 billion to NPV. But from low to high GDP impact adds $30 billion to NPV. More than 1% growth in GDP then NBN is a no brainer. Less than 0.5% then NBN is too expensive for the benefit it provides. Takeup has much less impact than GDP effect.

See spreadsheet here. Originally posted on Whirlpool NBN forum. Original Cost Benefit Analysis: July 2010 | April 2009.

Assumptions:
1a.Takeup high: Business 90%, Consumer 70%
1b.Takeup low: Business 65%, Consumer 50%
2a.GDP high: 1% impact (to year 15, pro rata to % built)
2b.GDP low: 0.5% impact

Scenarios:
1.High takeup, High GDP: NPV $10 billion
2.Low takeup, High GDP: NPV $nil
3.High takeup, Low GDP: NPV negative $21 billion
4.Low takeup, Low GDP: NPV negative $32 billion

With low takeup but high GDP impact, the NPV of the NBN is around $zero. Therefore, the NBN is positive, when business takeup exceeds 65%, AND consumer takeup exceeds 50% and GDP impact is 1% (per annum pro rata to year 15 from build start).

With high takeup, and 1% GDP growth (high GDP impact), NPV is positive $10.66 billion.

With low takeup (business 65%, consumer 50%) and 0.5% growth (low GDP impact), NPV is negative $32.5 billion.

If GDP growth only reaches 0.5% per annum (to year 15) from NBN, then NPV is negative $21 billion. This is with high takeup (business 90%, consumer 70%).

Therefore impact on GDP has the greater impact on NPV of NBN. From low to high takeup adds $10 billion to NPV. But from low to high GDP impact adds $30 billion to NPV. Sounds like we need to be arguing about how much impact the NBN will have on GDP. More than 1% growth in GDP then NBN is a no brainer. Less than 0.5% then NBN is too expensive for the benefit it provides. Takeup has much less impact than GDP effect.

Research on broadband impact on GDP.

1. Access Economics in their recent report for IBM, suggest 1.5% increase in GDP "within a few years" (p.37) for Transport, E-Health, Water, Electricity

However this is for FTTN (for $10-20 billion investment). Access Economics, The Economic Benefits of Intelligent Technologies, May 2009. Would be interesting to try to back out the costs. Though I don't think the 1.5% includes the cost of the network (p.ii), but depending on the degree of spare capacity in the economy (??jobs impact of building network??).



2. The World Bank considers there is a expectation of 1.2% increase in GDP for every 10% increase in broadband (Qiang 2009 pdf). This cites an earlier Qiang working paper of 2008. See picture above from Qiang 2009.

Australia in contrast has much high speed broadband. But many Australians do not use broadband. The ABS 8153.0 (June 2010) cites 9.6M internet services (3.2M over 8mbps; 8.2M over 500kbps). Of these 9.6M, 4.2M are DSL, 3.45M are wireless 0.8M dialup. Therefore there are at least 1.3M with dialup or slow broadband (less than 500kbps). These numbers relate to accounts rather than persons, so in our house one connection is used by me and my wife. Other houses may share a single connection with a family of five. Work and home connections might count twice. Still with 9M households and 2M businesses, there is still some scope for probably another 20% penetration of broadband from nothing, let alone those households with no computer. Malcolm Turnbull cited this week only 43% of homes with income $40,000 or less have internet.

Overall we have 9M households and 7.0M household broadband connections. But with only 4.3M DSL connections, there must be at least 2.7M wireless broadband connections, maybe iPhones and other 3G phones. At least 2M households don't have wireline broadband. Possibly as many as 4M households. Thus there is plenty of scope on the World Bank numbers for GDP growth in excess of 1%. However, the Cost benefit model needs a 1% GDP rise (about $7B per year) to run for about 8 years (from the end of the NBN build until the model ends at year 15).

The community needs to have a conversation about whether we think 1% growth in GDP is viable under the NBN. The NBN if spent in one year is about 3.5% of GDP. A 1% return increasing GDP is then around 30% return on investment. In these terms, the return seems quite high. Yet I am optimistic. Your comments are as always appreciated.